Q4'25 / FY25 — Where we stand, what competitors are doing, and what we should do
GlobalTrader mobile app for retail. >50% growth from India, SE Asia, MENA. IBKR Lite commission-free. "Ask IBKR" AI assistant. Education-first marketing.
Feb 2026: 4.65M accounts (+31%), $820B equity (+40%), 4.37M DARTs
PLN 585M marketing (+70%) — Zlatan, Mourinho, McGregor. Savings accounts attracted non-traders. Stocks/ETFs revenue +155%. Poland: 33% of all new accounts at CSD. €160 CPA.
⚠️ But net profit dropped 25% to PLN 644M
• 200+ tokenized US stocks in EU (Jun 2025). 24/7 via blockchain rails
• Gold Card + new $695 Platinum (Mar 2026). NII now 32% of revenue
• $380M crypto M&A (Bitstamp + WonderFi). Own L2 blockchain planned
• Prediction markets: 3B event contracts/month
• TradePMR ($300M) — entering wealth management
Insight: Credit cards are their growth engine. Tokenized stocks is the EU playbook.
• Full UK banking license (Mar 11, 2026!). FSCS protection activated
• 70M users, $75B valuation. Revenue £3.1B, £790M net income
• Expanding: Mexico, US (OCC app), Israel, Argentina, Peru
• Audi F1 title sponsor + Man City. IPO expected 2026-2027
• If 5% of 70M users trade = 3.5M (matching our funded)
Insight: Banking-first then trading is the opposite of our model — and it works. They're also entering Israel.
• Stock perpetual futures (Mar 20 — 2 days ago!). Mag 7 stocks, 24/7, non-US
• Deribit ($2.9B) — 80% of global crypto options. S&P 500 member
• Base L2 blockchain. USDC $30B+ circulation
• 108M users, $6.56B revenue, $2.58B net income
• CEO vision: "Gmail of finance" — all-in-one super-app
Insight: They just entered equities via crypto rails. Blurring the line between crypto and TradFi completely.
• £1,123M total revenue (+7%), £531M EBITDA (47% margin). Organic first trades +54%, active customers +6%
• Platform AUA approaching £20B (was £10.3B in CY23 — nearly doubled in 2 years)
• Freetrade: £32M revenue (+25% CAGR). Independent Reserve (AU crypto): acquired Jan 2026 for ~£68M
• tastytrade (US): $278M revenue FY25 (16% CAGR), 42% EBITDA margin, 109K active customers, $2.7K ARPU, $6B client funding. Client equity/customer grew $20K→$37K in 2 years. Goldman Sachs profiling the asset (Mar 2026). Leadership: ex-COO of Venmo + ex-COO of Cash App/Wealthfront
• Marketing: £109M (+31%), but payback in ~6 months, LTV:CAC = 4:1. Plan to spend >10% of revenue in 2026
• Fixed cost per funded customer down to £750 (vs ~£300 peer mean) — AI and digital servicing driving it down
• Strategic review: Evaluating M&A, domicile shift (US listing?), capital allocation. Outcomes autumn 2026
• Unified platform launching 2026: OTC + stocks + crypto + prediction markets in one place
• Q1'26 guidance: ~£300M revenue. CY26 organic growth "towards top end of mid-to-high single digit range"
Insight: IG's marketing payback of 6 months + 4:1 LTV:CAC proves you can spend aggressively IF returns are tracked. Their AUA doubled to £20B in 2 years. Unified platform approach is where the industry is heading.
3.5M customers, €95B AUM. FY25 guidance exceeded. 7x dividend increase. Key: savings plans as recurring revenue driver. Targeting German pension reforms with first-mover products. 75M+ transactions/year.
Insight: Savings plans = sticky, recurring AUC growth. Pension products are untapped for eToro in Europe.
Avanza: Record FY25 (SEK 4.5B, 68% margin). Savings accounts +80% YoY. 8.3% of all Swedish savings. Mortgages +24%. Nordnet: targeting 100K new Danish customers in 2026. Expanding to Germany.
Insight: "Savings-first" positioning attracts long-term customers. Avanza's +80% savings growth is the product-led acquisition model working.
€142B TFA, 1.8M clients. FY25 record results. 2026-2029 industrial plan: AI-driven growth. Financial advisor network = human touch at scale. NII 50% of revenue from integrated banking. #1 trading platform in Italy by volume.
Insight: The banking-brokerage hybrid model drives high AUC per client ($48K avg). Fineco proves the end-state model works.
24/7 Mag 7 stocks for non-US. $1.2T perps volume. Enters our territory.
Considering leaving London for US listing. Evaluating M&A + restructuring.
€507M (+16.4%). 864K new clients. Marketing +70% crushed margins.
Invite-only. Competing directly with Amex. Two-tier card strategy.
$820B equity (+40%). 4.37M DARTs (+21%). Growth accelerating.
5-year journey complete. FSCS deposit protection. Can now lend at scale.
Robinhood: 200+ tokenized stocks in EU. Coinbase: equity perpetual futures. Crypto rails for TradFi assets are live now.
→ Evaluate tokenized stocks for our EU offering
Robinhood cards (NII 32%). IG pensions (£250M+ transfers). XTB savings. Avanza savings +80%. Revolut full banking.
→ Credit card + savings + pensions = #1 product priority
IBKR "Ask IBKR". Robinhood Cortex. Fineco AI-first 2029 plan. Webull AI tools. IG 87% auto-approval.
→ Ship customer-facing AI (we have 19 agents — expose them)
Robinhood in 30 EEA countries. XTB blitzing CEE. IG + Freetrade UK. FlatexDegiro pensions. Nordnet → Germany.
→ Defend EU. Consider acquisitions. Accelerate UK
Cashback → CopyTrader. Robinhood proved cards drive deposits + lower CPA. Our NII is 26% vs their 32%.
"Ask eToro" assistant. AI copy recs. Every competitor shipping AI. We have 19 agents — expose them to customers.
Savings products, pensions, tokenized stocks. Consider acquiring a European platform (IG/Freetrade model: 460K users for £160M).
$4.9K → $10K avg account. Savings + deposit incentives. Product-led growth (IBKR model), not spend-led (XTB model).
#2 take rate (4.69%) · CopyTrader — unmatched · 100+ countries · 36.5% EBITDA · 42% valuation discount
AUC 17.5x below Robinhood · CPA 3.3x above · No credit card · $4.9K avg account · 38% EBITDA vs 59-79%
Corp Dev — March 2026 · Sources: Company filings Q4'25/FY25 · FactSet 2026E · Google Finance (Mar 20-21) · Company IR pages